Global coffee supply may moderately rebalance by 2026

Preliminary signs indicate that the new season’s Arabica coffee harvest is beginning to ease supply tightness in the two major consumption markets of the United States and the European Union, which had previously faced long-term supply constraints and limited stock. As harvesting of the main washed Arabica coffee accelerates, exports are expected to gradually improve, enabling roasting companies to rebuild inventories and reduce reliance on spot purchases.

In the United States, the removal of coffee import tariffs at the end of November 2025 is expected to help improve coffee import conditions, reducing costs and promoting a more stable supply chain. In the European Union, the one-year postponement of the EUDR implementation also reduces short-term challenges, alleviating immediate compliance burdens and facilitating smoother coffee circulation in the short term. The EU consumes about 55 million bags of coffee annually, accounting for 30% of global coffee consumption.Global coffee consumption is expected to reach 173.85 million bags in the 2025/26 year, an increase of 1.34% compared to the previous year. Global coffee production is expected to reach 178.85 million bags, up 2.01% from the previous year. This means that, following a 1.2 million bag supply deficit in 2024/25, the new production season will see a supply surplus of nearly 5 million bags.

However, it is worth noting that a 5 million bag surplus represents a moderate rebalancing rather than a return to oversupply, especially after years of shortages have left global origin inventories at historically low levels.