International Coffee Organization December Report: Coffee prices are extremely sensitive in the early stages of supply-demand reversals and low inventories, and any news can cause significant fluctuations.
In December 2025, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) composite coffee price monthly average index was 304.68 cents per pound, down 7.8% compared to November. Since mid-2025, coffee prices have been clearly on a downward trend. On December 19, the price fell to 283.21 cents per pound, dropping below 300 cents per pound for the first time since mid-August. However, during the final seven working days of the month, prices rose by a cumulative 3.5%, closing at 293.09 cents per pound.
Chart 1: Trend of the International Coffee Organization Composite Coffee Price Index
The current decline in coffee prices reflects expectations of improved global supply and demand conditions and policies, such as the European Union continuing to delay the implementation of the EUDR policy and the United States beginning to relax additional tariffs on coffee. Other factors include: on December 4, the Brazilian National Supply Company (Conab) raised its forecast for Brazilian coffee production by 2.4%.On December 18, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its estimate of global coffee production to 178.8 million bags. In addition, the depreciation of the Brazilian real against the U.S. dollar also contributed to the decline in coffee prices.
Chart 2: Brazilian Real to U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate
The reduction in speculative long positions in coffee futures has also put pressure on coffee prices.
Chart 3: Exchange coffee futures position data
The rebound in coffee prices at the end of December was mainly due to tropical storms hitting the northern part of Sumatra in Indonesia, which disrupted the supply of Arabica coffee from the region. In addition, Brazil's largest coffee-producing state, Minas Gerais, was reported to have received only 76% of its historical average rainfall for this period.
In any case, over the past four years, there have been three annual shortages in coffee supply, with a cumulative shortfall of 17.91 million bags. At the same time, the European Union's coffee stocks have dropped significantly to 7.86 million bags, far below the 15.04 million bags at the beginning of the 2022/23 year. The certified stocks of Arabica coffee on the exchange are only 480,000 bags, much lower than the 910,000 bags in January 2025. Therefore, coffee prices are extremely sensitive in the early stages of reversed supply-demand conditions and low inventory, and any news can cause dramatic fluctuations, as seen in December.
In December, spot prices for all categories of coffee declined. The details are as follows:
The specific prices for each category of coffee are as follows:
Chart 4: Price Index Trends of Various Coffee Categories
In December, coffee inventories at both the U.S. ICE Exchange and the European ICEU Exchange decreased. Among them, coffee inventories at the U.S. ICE Exchange increased by 9.7% to 480,000 bags. Coffee inventories at the European ICEU Exchange decreased by 2.7% to 710,000 bags. For details, see the chart below:
Chart 5: Exchange Coffee Stock Levels
In November, global green coffee bean exports totaled 8.95 million bags, an increase of 4.8% compared to 8.54 million bags in the same period last year. Except for a decrease in exports of Brazilian natural Arabica coffee and Colombian washed Arabica coffee, exports of other washed and Robusta coffee categories saw significant growth. The specifics are as follows:
Chart 6: Export Status of Major Coffee Categories
Chart 7: Comparison of Colombia Washed Arabica Coffee Export Volume and Colombia Washed Group Arabica Coffee Export Volume
Chart 8: Performance of Arabica and Robusta Coffee Export Shares
The specific manifestations in each region are as follows:
Chart 9: Coffee Exports in Major Regions
Chart 10: Coffee Export Volumes from Central America and Major Countries
